Vref: Overview of the Resale Aircraft Market:

Synopsis - - As we move into 2008, the U.S. Stock Market continues to vacillate.  Record personal bankruptcies, foreclosures and high gas prices appear in just about every conversation.  While this seems to have no negative effect on new turbine deliveries, the remainder of the resale market is nervous.

We’re all looking for a sign, a forecast...anything that will give us a glimpse into tomorrow.   Some things about the current market are very different than anything we remember – primarily the spectacular ramp up of prices in the new and nearly new jet market.  There is every reason to believe the new economies emerging outside the United States will continue to be prosperous in the long term.  That is good for general aviation.  Most of the new wide-bodies delivered in the next several years will not have an N-number.  However, some common themes remain.  Good airplanes sell and junk sits.  It doesn’t matter if it’s a Falcon or a Piper.  Second, there is volatility.   Each market fluctuates, and always has.  Since 2004, Cessna 152s and G-IVs look very similar on a Value Trend Graph (VrefOnLine.com).  When markets get flooded they fall - no rocket science there.

Newly emerging markets will always want what the West has had for many decades - lots of cars, steaks and airplanes.   Demand will ebb and flow, due to recessions, but the want will only get stronger.   Then why are some airplanes losing value?  Despite masterful restorations, 30-year-old jets with ProLine II, or piston twins with KX170s, will become increasingly difficult to sell as new generation airplanes populate the market.
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